Oscars 2013 Preferences and Predictions: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay

It’s Oscar prediction week, and today, I’m going to talk about the nominees for the two screenplay categories.

The screenplay categories are weird. I’m invested in this category because I’m a writer (and have a screenplay in progress, WHUT), and I never know how the Academy differentiates between adapted and original screenplay. I understand the need for separate categories, but I’m never sure what counts as an “adapted” screenplay and what counts as an “original” screenplay. Borat was once nominated for a screenplay award when most of that movie was improvised. Zero Dark Thirty is considered an original screenplay, despite Bigelow and Boal working directly with CIA people to create their work. Lincoln is an adapted screenplay of Team of Rivals, though my dad, having read the book twice, has said that the film, while historically accurate, has very little to do with Team of Rivals.

In short, I have no idea how voters judge screenplays. Do they read any of the scripts? Do they pick the films that have the best dialogue? Does familiarity with the source material determine the quality of an adapted screenplay? I can’t tell. This is a tough category to predict, especially since not all precursor awards even have screenplay awards. (The SAGs don’t, and the Globes have only one general “Best Screenplay” category.) I’m giving it my best shot.

Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo, written by Chris Terrio
Beasts of the Southern Wild, written by Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlin
Life of Pi, written by David Magee
Lincoln, written by Tony Kushner
Silver Linings Playbook, written by David O. Russell

Note: Every single nominee is also a Best Picture nominee, which means that no one film has the “BP nominee” competitive edge. Thanks, Academy, for messing up my ability to predict winners!

Should Win: Lincoln, though I really want to say Life of Pi. That film is based on one of my all-time favorite books, and David Magee did a wonderful job adapting it. That book is not an easy one to translate to film, and the work was masterful. However, I give Lincoln the slight edge, because Kushner wisely chose to focus on the last several months of Lincoln’s life instead of doing a typical biopic, and he made two and a half hours of Congressional procedure fascinating to watch. I was biting my nails in anxiety even though I knew the outcome of the vote. That takes talent.

Will Win: Silver Linings Playbook. Like I said, the Academy loves this movie, and it won the BAFTA. I have learned my lesson in discounting BAFTA winners.

Confidence Level in Making This Prediction: 50%. This award could just as easily go to Argo. It’s winning Best Picture all over the damn place in the precursor awards. The Academy does not seem to love Argo the way other award organizations love the film, and they seem to love Silver Linings Playbook more, but let’s say Argo wins Best Picture. I have a hard time believing that a film that wins Best Picture will ONLY win Best Picture and nothing else.

Possible Upset: Like I said – Argo.

For Your Consideration: The Perks of Being a Wallflower, written by Stephen Chbosky. My favorite non-nominated movie of the year. You’ll see this title pop up a lot in my posts.

Best Original Screenplay
Amour, written by Michael Haneke
Django Unchained, written by Quentin Tarantino
Flight, written by John Gatins
Moonrise Kingdom, written by Wes Anderson
Zero Dark Thirty, written by Mark Boal

Note: Three of these films are Best Picture nominees, so I am eliminating Moonrise Kingdom and Flight from the running. There is no real momentum for either of these movies.

Should Win: Django Unchained. I am an unabashed Tarantino fangirl, and I loved loved loved this movie. I saw it twice in one week and I want to see it again immediately. A part of me would love to see Zero Dark Thirty win this, though, because it’s a great film, and it will irritate the stupidheads who thought the movie was condoning torture (wrong).

Will Win: Django Unchained. It won the Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice Award, AND the BAFTA. 

Confidence Level in Making This Prediction: 50%. The Academy does not love Quentin, but they like him enough to throw him a bone every now and then. They’ll nominate him for Best Picture (though they will NEVER let him win Best Picture) and let him win in a Screenplay or Supporting acting category. Pulp Fiction won the Screenplay award, Inglourious Basterds won the Supporting Actor award. If Quentin wins an award, it will be in the Screenplay category.

Possible Upset: Amour. The film’s momentum is growing and it has a Best Director AND a Lead Acting nomination, while Django Unchained does not. I also suspect that the Academy is racist (no duh) and will react differently to Django Unchained (where American whites are all bad guys) than they did to Inglourious Basterds (where American white Jews – and French Jews – were heroes). Amour, while heartbreaking, does not make voters uncomfortable in the same way that Django will. Plus, it was also a very good screenplay. I can see this taking the Screenplay award despite the lack of previous wins.

For Your Consideration: The Cabin in the Woods, written by Drew Goddard and Joss Whedon; Friends with Kids, written by Jennifer Westfeldt.