Oscars 2013 Preferences and Predictions: Best Supporting Actor/Actress

The Oscars are dumb. I love the Oscars. In the greater scheme of things, the Oscars are not very important, but oh, I love them so, and this week, I’m going to write about my preferences and predictions for the screenplay, acting, directing, and picture categories.

When deciding who should win an Academy Award, I tend to focus on merit. The best person in the category should win, no matter how many times he or she has previously won or been nominated. (Determining the best person in the category is, of course, subjective.) HOWEVER. If two people in the same category did comparably strong work, where it’s really hard to determine who was “better” than the other, and one person is a previous winner and the other has never won, the Oscar should go to the person who hasn’t won before. I believe in spreading the wealth.

When deciding who will win an Academy Award, I look at the winners of the precursor awards (DGA, PGA, Golden Globes, SAGs, Critic’s Choice Awards, and the BAFTAs), entertainment coverage in the press, and Academy Award history. I also like to predict upsets from time to time, as there is usually one surprise or two come Oscar night.

Anyway, enough preamble. In this post, I will write about my predictions and preferences for the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress categories.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Note: All nominees in this category are previous nominees. Scratch that – all nominees in this category are previous winners. Way to spread the wealth, AMPAS.

Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones. His performance as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln was fierce, as uncompromising as the abolitionist himself. Lincoln could have easily been a one-man show without a strong supporting cast, and he forcibly reminded us that the fight to end slavery wasn’t just about the Emancipation Proclamation or about Abraham Lincoln. He was passionate, interesting without being likable, and soft only when the moment required it.

Will Win: Robert DeNiro. The Academy loves Silver Linings Playbook. They love it a lot. It’s going to go home with at least one award. Now that Emmanuelle Riva is getting some awards momentum for Amour, I think she might wind up beating Jennifer Lawrence in the Best Actress category. If Riva beats Lawrence, then I think DeNiro will win Supporting Actor. I think voters will also be pleased to see an actor of his caliber doing something besides yet another gangster role, and they usually have at least one surprise in an acting category.

Confidence Level in Making This Prediction: I’m 40% sure about this prediction – a soft 40%. Anyone could win this one. I hope it doesn’t go to Arkin or Hoffman. Arkin is a wonderful actor, but his performance in Argo really boils down to the repetition of a catchphrase. It’s a role many people could have played with a similar result, and doesn’t speak to his talent and skill. And I’m tired of Hoffman; I think he’s been coasting or going way over-the-top in his acting for a few years now, and The Master is definitely an over-the-top situation.

Potential Upset: Robert DeNiro is actually the upset in a category with no real frontrunner, but Christoph Waltz also has a good chance. He’s won the Golden Globe (which doesn’t mean much in terms of Oscars) AND the BAFTA (which does mean a lot, because there’s a big overlap in BAFTA and AMPAS voters). He’s also really charming, everyone likes him, and he was great in the movie.

However, as much as I loved Django Unchained and Waltz in it…it’s almost the same performance he did in Inglourious Basterds. The same charm and affability with the underlying dangerous quality. Even though it’s a GREAT performance, it’s essentially the same performance twice, except this time he’s playing a good guy. (I would’ve nominated DiCaprio or Jackson, especially Jackson, in his place.) The Academy is already hesitant to give Quentin Tarantino movies too much love, and if his movie wins an award, I think it has a better chance in the Screenplay category than the Supporting Actor category. I’m not ruling him out, but I think DeNiro and Jones both have better chances.

For Your Consideration: Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty; Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained; John Goodman, Flight; Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild; Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained; Irrfan Khan, Life of Pi; Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower; Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables; Bruce Willis, Moonrise Kingdom. 

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Amy Adams, The Master
Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Note: Every nominee is a previous nominee, but only two are previous winners.

Should Win: Anne Hathaway. She knocked “I Dreamed a Dream” out of the park, despite Tom Hooper shoving the camera so close to her face that you could almost see up her nostrils. She also elevated the performance beyond a typical “hooker with a heart of gold in a period drama” role and made Fantine’s struggle seem relevant today. Hathaway was comfortable and appropriate in the nineteenth century setting, but when I watched her suffer as Fantine, I felt chills thinking of women today who still suffer when they don’t have enough money to feed their children. That combination is hard to pull off, but she did it.

Will Win: Anne Hathaway, and deservedly so. As far as I’m concerned, she and Sally Field are the only two worth talking about. Weaver was moving but her part was too small to really stand out. Helen Hunt was fine in The Sessions but her accent slipped a lot, to the point of distraction. Amy Adams did the best she could with a “character” that was a pale copy of Lady Macbeth that Paul Thomas Anderson picked up at the 99-cent Character Trope Store because he doesn’t know how to write an actual flesh-and-blood woman. Sally Field was excellent in Lincoln. She and Hathaway’s performances were of comparable quality, and Field already has two Oscars, so let’s give it to Hathaway.

Confidence Level in Making This Prediction: 99%, and only because I am never 100% sure about anything.

Potential Upset: Ha ha. No. She’s winning. Enjoy picking apart how sincere or insincere she is in her acceptance speech, haters – that’s still one more Oscar than you’ll ever have.

For Your Consideration: Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty; Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower.